Coloradoan uncritically reported Musgrave's misleading projection for ANWR oil production

Summary: In an article about U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's (R) proposed legislation "aimed at increasing fossil fuel exploration" in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the Fort Collins Coloradoan reported Musgrave's unsubstantiated assertion that "more than 1 million barrels a day would be flowing from" wells there had such legislation been enacted in 1995. But the article failed to state that the federal government's peak production estimates for ANWR vary widely, from 510,000 to 1.45 million barrels per day.

A July 1 article in the Fort Collins Coloradoan about U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's (R) proposed "new federal legislation aimed at increasing fossil fuel exploration off the United States coast and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge [ANWR]" reported that Musgrave "argue[d] that had President Clinton not vetoed a bill permitting ANWR drilling in 1995, more than 1 million barrels a day would be flowing from it." The newspaper did not substantiate Musgrave's assertion, but a May 2008 Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, titled "Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge," indicated that official peak production estimates varied widely, depending on a number of factors. If "the authorization for Federal oil and natural gas leasing occurs during 2008," the report stated, the mean, or midpoint, estimate of "additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030." The report continued, "In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day, respectively."

The Coloradoan also reported that Musgrave "said her constituents are seeking relief from high gas and energy prices," but did not note that the EIA in its May report estimated that peak ANWR oil production would lower the cost of a barrel of oil by 41 cents according to the low-end estimate, and by $1.44 according to the high-end estimate. The mean estimate was a 75-cent reduction per barrel. The EIA noted in the May report that then-current prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for crude oil in the Americas, "recently exceeded $120 per barrel," meaning that the $1.44 price break theoretically resulting under the "high" ANWR production estimate would amount to a drop of about 1.2 percent.

From the July 1 Coloradoan article by Trevor Hughes, "Musgrave wants more drilling, investments in clean energy":

Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave is proposing new federal legislation aimed at increasing fossil fuel exploration off the United States coast and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Her proposal would also divert a portion of the tax revenues generated by new drilling operations to spur development of renewable energy sources, what she calls an Apollo program for the 21st century.

And it would ban the United States from selling weapons to Saudi Arabia unless the kingdom maintains a daily oil production level of 10 million barrels.

Musgrave, a Republican who represents Colorado's 4th Congressional District, said her constituents are seeking relief from high gas and energy prices. Musgrave regularly pumps gas for drivers in her district.

[...]

In discussing her plan for expanded drilling, Musgrave on Monday repeated a weeks-old assertion that China is drilling for oil off the Florida coast.

Vice President Dick Cheney said the same thing June 12 but was forced to retract his statement after experts said it wasn't true.

Musgrave, when told of the retraction, said she would have her staff look into it. Chief of Staff Guy Short later said Musgrave misspoke about Chinese drilling.

Musgrave said she thinks the American public's sentiment is shifting toward stronger support for drilling in ANWR and said the area being discussed is about the same size as her congressional district, with drilling operations limited to the size of the Centerra shopping development in Loveland.

Centerra is 3,000 acres.

According to Musgrave, ANWR contains about 10 billion barrels of oil, and the currently off-limits off-shore drilling areas contain about 19 billion barrels. She argues that had President Clinton not vetoed a bill permitting ANWR drilling in 1995, more than 1 million barrels a day would be flowing from it.

The May 2008 EIA report forecast three scenarios ("resource cases") -- mean, low, and high estimates -- of the production of ANWR oil, and stated that its analysis "assumes that the authorization for Federal oil and natural gas leasing occurs during 2008." According to the EIA's estimates:

The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day, respectively. Between 2018 and 2030, cumulative additional oil production is 2.6 billion barrels for the mean oil resource case, while the low and high resource cases project a cumulative additional oil production of 1.9 and 4.3 billion barrels, respectively.

[...]

Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.

—C.H. & J.F.B.